Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 2.577206 2.749784 2.934063 3.146515 3.386011 3.649220 3.962567
2025-02-16 2.298272 2.528266 2.787183 3.103772 3.485462 3.937652 4.524809
2025-02-23 2.128262 2.389708 2.694854 3.083897 3.576929 4.196287 5.060581
2025-03-02 1.999545 2.280011 2.616488 3.059765 3.644705 4.416776 5.565351
2025-03-09 1.896883 2.190053 2.549773 3.036843 3.702313 4.620213 6.069623
2025-03-16 1.818714 2.122873 2.503587 3.032013 3.777604 4.850186 6.647684
2025-03-23 1.768167 2.085915 2.491484 3.068514 3.909943 5.175330 7.440044
2025-03-30 1.694101 2.013457 2.426736 3.025257 3.919306 5.309481 7.929332
2025-04-06 1.627149 1.946396 2.364531 2.979646 3.918572 5.424010 8.404091
2025-04-13 1.555241 1.869194 2.284051 2.901496 3.859479 5.432127 8.669165
2025-04-20 1.526432 1.848139 2.279184 2.932681 3.973568 5.749932 9.658505
2025-04-27 1.507888 1.839720 2.290827 2.988269 4.131135 6.167647 11.013196
2025-05-04 1.484740 1.824487 2.292701 3.030248 4.272688 6.584737 12.562903
2025-05-11 1.443309 1.782060 2.253192 3.004802 4.295285 6.771580 13.583950
2025-05-18 1.407090 1.745436 2.220238 2.987244 4.329513 6.987336 14.801105
2025-05-25 1.371915 1.708898 2.185603 2.964469 4.351562 7.180217 16.057108
2025-06-01 1.339283 1.674772 2.152972 2.942734 4.373085 7.375399 17.451159
2025-06-08 1.313110 1.648963 2.131618 2.938153 4.426263 7.653272 19.382814
2025-06-15 1.298328 1.639020 2.133704 2.972777 4.558486 8.148932 22.765878
2025-06-22 1.265890 1.602209 2.093030 2.931743 4.535993 8.250036 24.338979
2025-06-29 1.234562 1.566151 2.052263 2.888454 4.505362 8.325642 25.887477
2025-07-06 1.197365 1.520521 1.995227 2.814229 4.405681 8.200819 26.141010
2025-07-13 1.186076 1.512908 1.997257 2.843857 4.524991 8.704855 31.278796